Should You Buy the Dip in This Fintech Stock?

This San Mateo, Calif.-based fintech company operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform that aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to its network of AI-enabled bank partners. The stock has garnered significant…

investor attention so far this year. Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST – Get Rating) shares have rallied 473.7% in price year-to-date on the back of substantial earnings growth. However, the stock slumped 18% on November 10 after the company reported its third-quarter results. Over the past month, UPST has lost 39.5% in price to close yesterday’s trading session at $236.01. It is currently trading above its 200-day moving average but below its 50-day moving average.

UPST failed to impress investors despite reporting substantial year-over-year growth in revenues and earnings that beat analyst estimates. Piper Sandler’s Arvind Ramnani accredited the stock’s selloff primarily to “elevated investor expectations and lack of quantification of its auto opportunity.”

In addition, the stock is currently trading at a lofty valuation. In terms of forward P/E, UPST is currently trading at 229.76x, which is 1,915.1% higher than the 11.40x industry average. Also, its 31.25 forward Price/Book ratio is 2,331.4% higher than the 1.29 industry average. And UPST’s 11.18x trailing-12-months PEG is 5,460.5% higher than the 0.20x industry average. Citing the lofty valuation, John Hecht of Jefferies Group LLC downgraded Upstart to Hold.


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Here is what could shape UPST’s performance in the near term:

Mixed Profitability

UPST’s 16.37x EBITDA margin is 30.3% lower than the 23.47% industry average. Also, its 12.14% net income margin  is 59.8% lower than the 30.22% industry average.

However, UPST’s 21.30%, 4.83%, and 7.40% respective ROE, ROA, and ROTC compare with the 12.84%, 1.35%, and 6.02% industry averages.



Solid Third-Quarter Earnings Report

UPST’s total revenues increased 249.5% year-over-year to $228.45 million in its fiscal third quarter, ended September 30. Income from operations stood at $28.60 million, up 134.3% from the same period last year. And its adjusted net income grew 367.7% from its year-ago value to $57.47 million. The company’s adjusted EPS increased 275% year-over-year to $0.60, topping the 0.33 consensus estimate by 81.8%. In addition, its adjusted EBITDA increased 282.6% year-over-year to $59.14 million.

Promising Analysts Estimates

Analysts expect UPST’s revenues to increase 203.8% year-over-year to $263.39 million in the current quarter. Furthermore…


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